DailyBrief: March 31

Markets & Economics

Oil Markets Swing as Trump Signals Openness to Ending Iran War
President Donald Trump told aides he is willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday, triggering a sharp equity rally and a pullback in oil prices. Brent crude, which has surged 36% since the conflict began on Feb. 28, eased to around $112.90 per barrel on Tuesday, while WTI slipped to $102.30. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil flows, has virtually ground to a halt since the war's outbreak, removing an estimated 4.5 to 5 million barrels per day from global supply. National average gasoline prices crossed $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, reaching $4.02 on March 31. Markets remain cautious, however, as Trump simultaneously threatened to destroy Iran's oil export infrastructure, keeping analysts on edge. S&P 500 futures rose 0.8% on the war-exit report. Source: Bloomberg, CNBC
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Fed Holds Rates Steady as Powell Downplays Need to Hike on Oil Shock
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Monday that policy rates at 3.50%-3.75% are appropriate and that the central bank sees no need to raise rates in response to the energy price shock from the Iran conflict, calling the situation one where it is best to "wait and see." The Fed's March dot plot signals one rate cut this year and another in 2027, though market expectations have narrowed to at most one cut in 2026 given persistent price pressures. Core PCE stood at 3.06% year-over-year as of the January release, above the Fed's 2% target. The OECD has sharply revised its US inflation forecast for 2026 to 4.2%, up from a prior projection of 2.8%, citing Middle East developments. Powell acknowledged near-term inflation expectations have risen alongside oil prices, but said he believes the effect is likely transitory and that the central bank is "limited in what it can do" when faced with a geopolitical supply shock. Source: CNBC, BNN Bloomberg
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Dollar Firms While ECB Faces Unexpected Rate Hike Pressure
The US dollar index held above 100 on Tuesday, on pace for a nearly 3% monthly gain as safe-haven demand surged amid the protracted Middle East conflict. The EUR/USD pair fell to 1.1462, down 0.4% on the session. Markets have dramatically repriced European Central Bank expectations in recent days: where investors previously anticipated rate cuts, they now see at least two hikes in 2026, possibly a third, after German CPI came in above forecasts and eurozone business sentiment surveys showed a steep decline. The shift reflects how the Iran-driven oil shock is rippling through global monetary policy, forcing central banks from Washington to Frankfurt to reassess inflation trajectories they had hoped to put behind them. The dollar has gained roughly 2.1% over the past month, while the Euro has weakened 1.93% against the dollar in the same period. Source: TradingEconomics, MTFX Group
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S&P 500 Heads for Worst Monthly Performance Since 2022
The S&P 500 is on course to close March as its worst month since 2022, down roughly 5.1% year-to-date through late March, as the Iran conflict, soaring oil prices, and stagflation fears eroded investor confidence. The benchmark fell roughly 7% from its prior peak before stabilizing in recent sessions. Brent crude's 36% surge since late February has pressured corporate earnings outlooks, squeezed consumer spending capacity, and revived memories of the 2022 rate-shock selloff. Options traders have been positioning for further downside, and the OECD has cut global growth forecasts while raising inflation projections. Analysts note that while the labor market has remained firm, higher energy costs are expected to increasingly weigh on household budgets and business margins in the months ahead, with the risk of a broader growth slowdown rising if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Source: Bloomberg, CNBC
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Tech & AI

Mistral AI Raises $830M in Debt to Build Nvidia-Powered Data Center Near Paris
French AI startup Mistral AI has secured $830 million in debt financing from a seven-bank consortium, including BNP Paribas, HSBC, Crédit Agricole CIB, and Bpifrance, to fund a major new AI data center in Bruyères-le-Châtel, outside Paris. The facility will house 13,800 Nvidia GB300 GPUs, bringing Mistral's total compute capacity to 44 megawatts, with the company targeting 200 MW across Europe by end-2027. The deal is Mistral's first debt financing, supplementing $2.9 billion in equity raised to date, and signals a broader European push to build domestic AI infrastructure independent of US cloud providers. Separately, a 1.4-gigawatt AI campus involving Abu Dhabi's MGX fund, Nvidia, and Mistral was announced near Paris, with construction expected in late 2026 and operations by 2028. Source: TechCrunch, Bloomberg
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Anthropic Eyes $60 Billion IPO as Early as October 2026
Anthropic is in preliminary discussions with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley about a public listing that could value the AI safety company at more than $60 billion, according to multiple reports. The potential IPO window is October 2026, though no formal filing has been made and an Anthropic spokesperson told Reuters the company has not yet decided whether or when to go public. Anthropic's annualized revenue surpassed $19 billion as of March 2026, more than doubling from $9 billion at the end of 2025, and its most recent funding round in February valued it at $380 billion. If completed at the anticipated scale, the listing could rank among the largest venture-backed IPOs in history. Rival OpenAI is also targeting a public market debut before year-end, with both firms seeking permanent capital structures to fund the enormous costs of frontier AI research and infrastructure. Source: Bloomberg, The Information
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