DailyBrief: April 5

Markets & Economics

U.S. Adds 178,000 Jobs in March, Crushing Forecasts as Labor Market Holds Firm
The Labor Department released its March employment report on Good Friday, April 3, revealing the U.S. economy added 178,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, dramatically beating economists' expectations of roughly 65,000. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. The report signals a resilient labor market even as the Iran war and elevated energy costs cloud the broader economic outlook. Markets were closed for the holiday when the data dropped; Wall Street will respond when trading resumes Monday, April 6.
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Iran War Sends Oil Toward $150 a Barrel as Strait of Hormuz Remains Shut
The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict has triggered what the International Energy Agency has called the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." Roughly 20% of global oil supply normally transits the Strait of Hormuz, and with traffic at a standstill, the world has lost an estimated 4.5 to 5 million barrels per day, about 5% of global supply. That figure is expected to double by mid-April. U.S. gasoline prices crossed $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022. Analysts at Oxford Economics warn that if the strait remains too dangerous to navigate beyond mid-April, oil could surpass $150 a barrel within weeks, with some government officials and Wall Street analysts now modeling a scenario approaching $200. The disruption has revived comparisons to the 1970s energy crisis, raising the specter of stagflation and recession across major economies. Source: CNBC, Bloomberg
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Wall Street Posts Best Week of 2026, Markets Reopen Monday with Jobs Data in Focus
U.S. equity markets logged strong weekly gains through Thursday, April 2, before closing Friday in observance of Good Friday. The S&P 500 rose 3.4% for the week, the Dow Jones added nearly 3%, and the Nasdaq surged 4.4%, with investors gaining confidence that markets are beginning to look past the immediate shock of the Iran war. Bulls argue equities are closer to moving on, though a number of strategists caution that further consolidation is likely before a sustained trend emerges. With the surprise March jobs print arriving on a market holiday, the full equity and bond market reaction is expected Monday morning. S&P 500 earnings are forecast to grow approximately 13% in Q1 2026, which would mark a sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit profit growth. Source: CNBC, TheStreet
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Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady as Oil Shock Complicates Inflation Path
The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% at its March 18 meeting, the second consecutive hold, as policymakers wrestled with a more challenging inflation picture. Officials raised their median projection for headline PCE inflation from 2.4% to 2.7% for 2026, and lifted core PCE forecasts to match at 2.7%, reflecting energy price passthrough into goods and services. The Fed's median projection still points to one quarter-point cut in 2026, but the Iran war's effect on energy markets has added fresh uncertainty to that baseline. GDP growth for 2026 was revised slightly higher to 2.4%, while unemployment is projected at 4.4%. The May FOMC meeting will be heavily shaped by the March jobs surprise and the trajectory of oil prices. Source: Federal Reserve, U.S. Bank
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Tech & AI

SpaceX Confidentially Files for IPO Targeting More Than $2 Trillion Valuation
SpaceX filed confidentially with the SEC for what would be the largest initial public offering in U.S. history. According to Bloomberg and multiple reports, the company is targeting a valuation above $2 trillion and could raise up to $75 billion, more than three times the size of the previous record U.S. IPO. A listing is reportedly targeted for around June 2026. Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley are lined up as senior underwriters, and SpaceX is reportedly allocating 30% of shares to retail investors, triple the typical Wall Street norm. The company's Starlink satellite internet service crossed 10 million subscribers globally and generated $10 billion in revenue in 2025. At a $2 trillion valuation, SpaceX would rank among the five most valuable companies in the world. Source: Bloomberg, TechCrunch, CNBC
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Global Venture Funding Hits Record $300 Billion in Q1 2026, AI Dominates
Venture capital investment shattered all prior records in Q1 2026, with investors deploying $300 billion into approximately 6,000 startups globally, more than double the figure from a year earlier, according to Crunchbase. Foundational AI startups alone captured twice the total funding they received across all of 2025. OpenAI closed a $122 billion round led by Amazon ($50 billion), Nvidia ($30 billion), and SoftBank ($30 billion), while Anthropic secured $30 billion in a Series G. The surge reflects broad market conviction that the current AI cycle represents a once-in-a-generation platform shift, with the industry's center of gravity moving toward agentic systems: AI that can autonomously execute complex, multi-step workflows rather than simply conversing. Source: Crunchbase
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