DailyBrief: April 28
Big Tech earnings week, Fed holds rates, oil tops $111 on Hormuz standoff
Markets & Economics
Big Tech Earnings Week Tests $16 Trillion Rally as S&P, Nasdaq Hit Records
US equity futures were mixed Tuesday after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs, with the broad gauge on track for its strongest monthly performance since 2020. Investors are bracing for results this week from five Magnificent Seven names, with Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta reporting Wednesday, followed by Apple on Thursday. With roughly a third of the S&P 500 reporting, the focus is on whether elevated AI capital spending will translate into sustained earnings growth. So far the season has been broadly supportive, with 80 to 85 percent of S&P 500 companies beating estimates and profit growth tracking at 13 to 16 percent year over year. Source: Bloomberg
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Fed Expected to Hold Rates Steady at 3.50 to 3.75 Percent
The Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day meeting Tuesday and is widely expected to leave the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50 to 3.75 percent on Wednesday. Headline CPI rose 3.3 percent year over year in March on surging energy prices, while core CPI eased to a slower-than-expected 2.6 percent, leaving policymakers caught between sticky energy-driven inflation and a cooling underlying trend. Markets are leaning toward no cuts in 2026, and this could be Jerome Powell's final meeting as Fed chair. Source: CNBC
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Oil Climbs Above $111 as Strait of Hormuz Standoff Drags On
Brent crude rose nearly 2 percent to trade above $111 a barrel Tuesday, reaching levels last seen in March, as efforts to end the US-Iran conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz remained stalled. Tehran has offered through Pakistan to halt attacks on shipping in exchange for the lifting of the US naval blockade, a revised transit framework, and assurances against future strikes, but US officials said President Trump and his national security team remain skeptical of the proposal. Flows through Hormuz, which historically carry roughly a fifth of global energy consumption, remain effectively halted, and the IEA has warned of an unprecedented supply shock alongside mounting risks of a demand slowdown. Source: Bloomberg
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Bank of Japan Decision Kicks Off Packed Central Bank Week with Yen Pinned Near 159
The Bank of Japan opens a marathon round of central bank meetings on Wednesday, with traders pricing in the possibility of a rate hike that would mark a meaningful step in policy normalization. USD/JPY is trading near 159.3, just below the 160 line that has acted as a battleground level all year, after the yen weakened in March on the surge in energy prices. Finance Minister Katayama has said authorities retain a "free hand" to intervene in currency markets to stabilize the yen if needed. The BOJ decision is followed by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the European Central Bank on Thursday, a sequence that could drive volatility across global rates and currency markets. Source: Forex.com
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Tech & AI
Ineffable Intelligence Raises Record $1.1 Billion Seed at $5.1 Billion Valuation
London-based Ineffable Intelligence, founded by former Google DeepMind researcher David Silver, has raised $1.1 billion in seed funding at a $5.1 billion valuation, the largest seed round in European history. The round was led by Sequoia Capital and Lightspeed Venture Partners, with participation from Nvidia and Google. Silver, known for foundational work on AlphaGo and reinforcement learning, is building what the company calls a "superlearner" capable of acquiring broad knowledge and skills through experience rather than relying solely on human-generated data, a bet on a new architectural path toward more capable AI systems. Source: CNBC
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China Blocks Meta's $2 Billion Acquisition of AI Startup Manus
China's National Development and Reform Commission ordered Meta Platforms to unwind its $2 billion acquisition of Manus, a Singapore-headquartered AI startup with Chinese roots, in a brief statement Monday. The decision underscores Beijing's expanding willingness to use regulatory tools to block cross-border AI deals it deems sensitive, following early April rules that broadened state powers over industrial and supply chain security. The unwind adds friction to Meta's aggressive AI buildout, which CEO Mark Zuckerberg has tied to roughly $135 billion in planned AI spending this year. Source: Bloomberg
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