DailyBrief: April 24
Oil tops $107 on Strait of Hormuz standoff, Intel surges on AI CPU demand, OpenAI ships GPT-5.5
Markets & Economics
Oil Climbs Above $107 as US, Iran Deadlocked Over Strait of Hormuz
Brent crude futures rose 2.2% to $107.38 per barrel on Friday, while US West Texas Intermediate gained 1.9% to $97.71, as a naval standoff continues to shut the world's most critical oil artery. IEA chief Fatih Birol warned this is "the biggest energy security threat in history," and Commonwealth Bank of Australia noted that the longer the strait remains closed, the greater the pressure on one side to back down. President Trump on Thursday ordered the US Navy to destroy any Iranian vessels laying mines, and said no ship can enter or leave without US approval. Roughly 20 million barrels a day of crude and refined products traversed the strait before the war. Source: CNBC
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Intel Q1 Earnings Crush Expectations as AI Lifts CPU Demand
Intel reported adjusted earnings of 29 cents per share versus the 1 cent analysts expected, on revenue of $13.58 billion against a $12.42 billion consensus, sending shares up roughly 20% in after-hours trade. Revenue grew 7% year over year, with the data center business climbing 22% to $5.1 billion as agentic AI workloads drive renewed demand for central processing units alongside Nvidia's GPUs. Intel guided second-quarter revenue to $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion and adjusted EPS of 20 cents, well above Street estimates of $13.07 billion and 9 cents. The company also confirmed it will join Elon Musk's Terafab chip complex in Austin, Texas, which will produce advanced silicon for SpaceX, xAI and Tesla. Source: CNBC
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US Stocks Steady Near Records as Iran Worries Meet Intel Optimism
The S&P 500 traded near 7,121 on Friday morning after slipping 0.41% on Thursday to 7,108.40, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.89% to 24,438.50 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 179.71 points at 49,310.32 on rising oil prices and unease over the Iran war trajectory. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6% early Friday on Intel's blowout results. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.30% while the 2-year held at 3.84%, leaving markets caught between safe-haven bids and energy-driven rate concerns. Source: Bloomberg
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IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast to 3.1% as Energy Shock Complicates Fed Outlook
The International Monetary Fund's April World Economic Outlook projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, well below pre-pandemic averages, warning that activity now faces "a major test from the outbreak of war in the Middle East." The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to regional energy infrastructure have lifted prices for oil, diesel, jet fuel, fertilizer, aluminum and helium. The Fund expects US PCE and core PCE inflation to run at 2.7% this year, up from December's 2.4% and 2.5% projections, leaving the Fed with little room to cut after holding the funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% in March. The Financial Stability Board separately warned of rising volatility and tighter financial conditions tied to the conflict. Source: IMF
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Tech & AI
OpenAI Launches GPT-5.5, Pushing Deeper Into Coding and Agentic Workflows
OpenAI announced GPT-5.5, a successor to GPT-5.4 released less than two months ago, with upgrades focused on coding, computer use and long-horizon research. The model is rolling out to paid ChatGPT Plus, Pro, Business and Enterprise users, as well as in the Codex coding assistant. The launch underscores the compressed cadence of frontier releases, with OpenAI, Anthropic and Google DeepMind all shipping major new systems within weeks of each other this month. Source: CNBC
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DeepSeek Drops New Low-Cost Model, Rattling AI Sector
Chinese AI startup DeepSeek released a long-awaited new model on Friday, claiming performance on par with leading Western systems at a fraction of the compute cost. Landing hours after OpenAI's GPT-5.5, the launch reignited pressure on US labs' pricing and gross-margin assumptions and briefly weighed on AI-exposed equities. DeepSeek has been a persistent cost-efficiency challenger since its 2024 breakthrough, and analysts see this release as another signal that open-weight Chinese models will keep compressing the premium US providers can charge for frontier capability. Source: Yellow.com
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