DailyBrief: April 10

Markets & Economics

U.S. Inflation Surges to 3.3% in March, Highest Since Mid-2024
The Consumer Price Index for March 2026 jumped 0.9% on the month and 3.3% year over year, the highest annual rate since May 2024 and a sharp acceleration from 2.4% in February. The surge was driven primarily by a 10.6% monthly spike in energy prices tied to the U.S.-Iran war and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, alongside continued pass-through of tariffs into consumer goods. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, the highest in five months. The national average price of gasoline climbed above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years, placing further strain on household budgets and raising questions about whether the Federal Reserve can resume its rate-cutting cycle. Source: Kiplinger
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Iran Ceasefire Doubts Push Oil Back Above $100 a Barrel
A fragile two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire announced April 7 triggered a historic relief rally in global markets, with crude oil plunging more than 16% and the Dow jumping 1,325 points on its best day in over a year. But optimism faded quickly: by April 9, fewer than a half-dozen ships had been observed transiting the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting Iran was still limiting traffic through the critical waterway despite the agreement. WTI crude rebounded back above $100 per barrel as markets reassessed the durability of the truce. The episode has underscored deep uncertainty hanging over energy markets, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively a choke point responsible for roughly 20% of global oil flows. Source: CNBC
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S&P 500 on Pace for Biggest Weekly Gain in Almost a Year
Despite volatility tied to the Iran situation and Friday's hotter-than-expected inflation print, U.S. equities are heading into the weekend on track for the S&P 500's largest weekly advance in nearly 12 months. The index surged 2.5% on April 7 alone, its best single-session gain since April 2025. Semiconductor stocks led the broader rally, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF gaining more than 5% and Micron Technology rising over 7% at the peak. Europe's Stoxx 600 also advanced 0.6% Friday as Ukraine's chief negotiator with Russia expressed optimism about peace talks, adding a second geopolitical tailwind. Source: Bloomberg / CNBC
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Bank of Japan Expected to Raise Rates in April as Japan PPI Accelerates
Japan's producer price index accelerated sharply to 2.6% year-over-year in March from 2.0% in February, driven by higher fuel costs tied to the Iran conflict. A former Bank of Japan executive director said Friday that the central bank will likely raise its benchmark rate this month, citing the need to avoid falling behind on inflation. Markets are now pricing in a hike to 1.0% at the BoJ's late-April meeting, which would be the highest level in three decades. The IMF has also separately urged the BoJ to press ahead with rate increases. The expected move carries significant implications for global carry trades and asset markets, given the scale of yen-denominated borrowing used to fund positions in higher-yielding assets worldwide. Source: Bloomberg
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Tech & AI

OpenAI Plans Retail Investor Allocation Ahead of Potential $1 Trillion IPO
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar told CNBC on April 8 that the company plans to set aside a portion of its eventual IPO shares for individual investors, a meaningful break from the institutional-dominated norm in large tech offerings. The decision follows an extraordinary private placement in which OpenAI set out to raise $1 billion from retail investors through banks including JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs, only to see demand come in at three times that amount. The company is laying the groundwork for a U.S. listing that could value it at up to $1 trillion, with a regulatory filing potentially as soon as the second half of 2026. OpenAI recently surpassed $25 billion in annualized revenue. Source: CNBC
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Amazon's Cloud AI Revenue Hits $15 Billion Annual Run Rate in Q1
Amazon disclosed that its cloud division's AI revenue run rate topped $15 billion in the first quarter of 2026, one of the clearest signals yet that the wave of hyperscaler AI investment is beginning to translate into measurable top-line growth. The company's custom silicon business, which includes its Graviton and Trainium chip lines, crossed an annual revenue run rate of $20 billion, roughly double the figure cited earlier this year. The results arrive as Meta has also signed a new deal to spend an additional $21 billion with CoreWeave between 2027 and 2032, on top of a prior $14.2 billion commitment, underscoring the sustained intensity of cloud AI infrastructure spending across the sector. Source: CNBC / Bloomberg
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